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Meteorologist Scott Stevens Winter Forecast

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Meteorologist Scott Stevens Winter Forecast PostSat Nov 26, 2005 10:49 pm  Reply with quote

Here we go! As I predicted back in August, we are in for a long cold winter; mostly focused over the expensive to heat northeastern US. For the fourth week of November, bitterly cold winter weather is about to burst onto the scene, and just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday travel weekend. This first real taste of winter weather will be a monster of a winter storm. Tropical moisture from ‘Gamma' will be entrained into this developing Thanksgiving blizzard the likes of which have not been seen in some time.

A highly engineered jet stream pattern featuring a deep eastern North American trough which is greater than four Sigma's (standard deviations) from normal will be responsible for tapping an arctic air mass that will deliver sub-zero temperatures as far south as Des Moines, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cleveland and eastward to the Capitol District of New York. This cold air surging over the still warm waters of the Great Lakes will yield some fantastic snowfall totals that may exceed 72” by Sunday the 27 th of November.

In addition to the lake effect snow the series or polar lows will encounter rich warm moisture from “Gamma” to generate significant snow during three distinct episodes. The first Nor-Easter will crawl up the Atlantic Seaboard Monday and Tuesday with the risk of severe thunderstorms across Florida Monday followed by a rapid deepening of the low… It ‘Bombs-Out' as it begins to trek to the northeast Monday night and Tuesday. Snows will begin to fall Monday night from the Georgia Appalachians into western Pennsylvania by mid-day Tuesday. These higher elevation snows may exceed 15”. Rains and driving winds will hug the costal areas.

Our second storm tops the monumental high-pressure ridge out West Monday; while in the far northern Canadian Arctic this low taps a surface atmosphere that is as cold as –30F, and then begins its rapid southeastward plunge towards the Great Lakes arriving early Wednesday. Gusty winds ahead of the storm will briefly warm the Ohio Valley Wednesday as the storm deepens further while chasing out our big rainmaker now curling back to the eastern reaches of Hudson Bay. This second storm will be a big wind maker. Arctic air pours across the warm lakes generating at least two full days of lake effect snows, likely for a longer span of time from Cleveland into the Niagara Frontier of the Empire State. As we all know November lake effect snow events can be monumental, this will be one of those instances.

Holiday travel will be greatly impacted. In hindsight this will be seen as an understatement.

A third low will top the Western ridge early Thanksgiving weekend and will likely serve to reinforce the January like conditions that are already in place through the eastern third of North America. Once the deep snow pack is in place the cold will be here for the duration of the season.

As we have all experienced during the past few weeks, our energy costs have come down substantially after the spike of September's hurricanes. This trend will be reversed this week. Massive distillate (finished products) petroleum imports from Europe ceased on or about the 10 th of November; these imports made up for what unrefined product remained shut-in across the Gulf of Mexico. Now we have record EARLY cold in the heavily populated Northeast accompanied by a minimal build in petroleum reserves and vast majority of Gulf production still off line. This will turn out to be a long cold winter. Conservation, food storage and firewood will be necessities.

Remember, it is the brilliance of our government's energy policy that got us into this current situation. All they see is oil, oil and more oil as the solutions to our energy needs. This is simply a stupid policy every which way it is looked at. We have elected shortsighted idiots to run this country. Doesn't anybody remember the oil crisis of 1970's? We have had 30 years to change how this country, and by default this world, generates and consumes energy. What we have lacked is leadership with vision. Vision not focused just on the shareholders of Halliburton but one that is focused on the betterment of mankind and the health of this planet of ours.
Bundle-up as it is going to be a challenge for many less fortunate families to make ends meet this winter. If your utility has a plan so that you can pay an additional five, ten dollars or more for assistance for the poor, please participate.

Last edited by BigJoe on Sun Nov 27, 2005 3:14 am; edited 4 times in total
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Joined: 07 Dec 2002
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Location: A Remote/Well Fortified Complex
PostSat Nov 26, 2005 11:02 pm  Reply with quote  

Perhaps a connection here to the AWESOME spraying which we witnessed, and reported, taking place over Lake Erie yesterday...

This huge operation is STILL continuing today...

Also, satellite images have revealed massive spraying being conducted over the eastern end of Lake Ontario since Thursday as well...,
over the Watertown, New York and Western Adirondack/Tug Hill Plateau Region of New York State.

Satellite images have also revealed that the heavy bands of lake effect snow being generated off of Lake Huron are also being hit really hard by the spraying. This all began on Thursday.
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